Abstract

ROJAS PADILLA, Carlos Alberto; FIORILO SERRUDO, Lucy Daniela; RENJEL SALINAS, Natalia  and  SOLIZ SOSSA, Anahí. Causality between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oli prices and economic activities developed in Bolivia, period 2011-2020.. Investigación y Negocios [online]. 2022, vol.15, n.25, pp.15-30. ISSN 2521-2737.

Abstract Establish the causal relationship between the international oil prices variable, considering the prices of crude oil produced in Texas and southern Oklahoma (WTI) and the economic activity variable in Bolivia, based on the quar-terly information presented in the economic statistics in the section on National accounts of the National Institute of Statistics, represents the scope of the research, based on a previous conjecture "There is causality between the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices and the economic activities developed in Bolivia, period 2011 - 2020" the design eminently quantitative methodological, with historical information summarized in 38 quarterly data presented in time series, allowed the statistical treatment of the data. The statistical approach to the data was developed based on the Windows 2013 Excel program, and the EVIEWS program, in the first instance, the determination of the simple correlation and the degree of determination between the variables in general, based on the results, allows affirm that the relationship of the WTI variable, with the PIB and the main sectors of the Bolivian economy, is non-existent, there is no adjustment between the variables, the fluctuations in oil prices do not explain the changes in the Bolivian economic variables; However, it was determined that in the case of the financial services sector and public administration spending have a minimal relationship with the WTI variable, it was also established thatthis minimal relationship is indirect, while the level of adjustment ranges from 22% to 29%. The Granger causality test, using the VAR analysis, considering 4 lags, allowed to reinforce the previous con-clusions in the sense that there is no Granger causality between the analyzed variables, the variable X does not cause the variable Y in the sense of Granger, if there is some degree of relationship between the variables, it was possible to establish that this relationship would be spurious, since there is no cointegration, that is, there is no synchrony between the ascents and descents of the variables

Keywords : Correlation; Determination; Causality; Cointegration; Granger.

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