Resumo

SANJINES TUDELA, Gimmy Nardó. Environmental threats and vulnerability in a variability climate context for Bolivia. rlde [online]. 2011, n.16, pp.81-130. ISSN 2074-4706.

The object of the present investigation paper is to show the impact of the threats of flooding, drought and frosting in the welfare of the different regions of Bolivia taking into account the vulnerabilities as variables of approximation to the different indicators socio- economical of welfare. The investigations is important because it brings to the state of knowledge a new method to calculate and identify the impacts on the socio-economic produced by the climatic change. The method for its validation is applied in a very particular way in Bolivia. This contribution is generated by combining the analysis of the climatic variability -that basically is expressed in threats, and vulnerabilities and the risk- with artificial intelligence. To obtain the objective manifested we must identify the relations between threats, vulnerabilities and welfare and welfare you must construct different Expert Systems (the same that belong to the area of artificial Intelligence) with the basis in the algorithm C4.5. The algorithm has as main characteristic that allows assemble the tree of decision with base in facts tables, making in this way the work of recognition of patterns. The recognition of this pattern allows to describe, the increase or decreasing of the welfare produced by the variables object of study acquiring in this way, the objective stated.

Palavras-chave : Artificial Intelligence; Expert Systems; Environmental Risks; Path theory; Impact on Welfare; Socio-economic; Welfare Economics.

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