Resumo

BURGOA TERCEROS, Rodrigo  e  HERRERA JIMENEZ, Alejandro. Synthetic control analysis of the domestic impact of beef export restrictions in Bolivia. rlde [online]. 2017, n.27, pp.77-100. ISSN 2074-4706.

This paper analyzes the impact of the restriction policy on beef exports applied in Bolivia in 2008, as a result of the adverse effects of the phenomenon of La Niña over the domestic supply of the same foodstuff. To carry out our estimations, we applied the Synthetic Control method with a data panel with 128 countries, including Bolivia between 1995 and 2013 including information on macroeconomic indicators, commercial, infrastructure and landlocked conditions, in order to construct a synthetic' counterfactual of comparison with Bolivia and then to approximate the impact of this policy over the results of the domestic market of the product. Empirically and as the conclusions of similar papers, we find that the implementation of this restrictive trade policy was counterproductive to its objective of gradually replenishing the domestic beef market. We argue that the export restriction policy implied a disincentive for beef producers, slowing the recovery of their productive activity after the adverse climatic events that motivated this policy implementation.

Palavras-chave : Synthetic control; quantitative restrictions to exports; beef production; domestic supply.

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