Resumo

APARICIO, Ruth Marcela. TERMS OF TRADE AND NON TRADITIONAL EXPORTS: A MICROECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS. Inv. y Des. [online]. 2014, vol.2, n.14, pp.26-41. ISSN 1814-6333.

Since 2004 some economies in Latin America, including Bolivia, have experienced an improvement in their terms of trade.  In this research we investigate the causal effect of this improvement on nontraditional exports. We focus on before and after the increase in terms of trade and analyze how this improvement affects export performance. To identify this causal effect we rely on dynamic analysis and we use four different microeconometric techniques: Difference in differences, Kernel propensity score matching, difference in differences combined with propensity score matching, and synthetic control method.  Each one of these improves estimation of  the counterfactual outcome. Thus, this paper reviews the theory of these  impact evaluation methodologies and also analyzes the way in which the theory has developed toward a more systematic  methodology to construct the counterfactual. Our estimation results show that nontraditional exports would have increased if these countries had not had improvements in their terms of trade.

Palavras-chave : Mejoramiento en los Términos de Intercambio; Exportaciones no Tradicionales; Diferencia en Diferencias; Improvement in Terms of Trade; Nontraditional Exports; Difference in Differences; Propensity Score Matching-Difference in Differences; Synthetic Control Method; Latin American Countries.

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